KNYSNA | BITOU NEWS - As is the case in many other constituencies around the country, it's been all smoke and mirrors, clandestine deals and arcane meetings in our neck of the woods after the final ballot for the local government elections (LGE) fell into the box last week.
No one has committed to making an official statement as independents negotiate delicate alliances with the bigger batters and cooperative/coalition treaties are forged between opposing factions - but most players have promised to announce their particular partnerships in the next few days.
Predicting results in the fragile, shifting South African political quagmire is nothing short of folly, but gauging by the responses to prompts by KPH, the election results and some common sense, the trends emerging are being whittled down to a few likely outcomes.
Bitou
The situation in Bitou seems slightly less complex than in Knysna. Political parties indicated that they are still in coalition talks and that these would likely be concluded by the end of the week or early next week.
They have not indicated exactly where political allies would be formed, but as it stands the DA, which received five of 13 seats, needs to form a coalition with two other parties to gain the majority.
The ANC has four seats and would need to form a coalition with three other parties to secure majority. The PA, PDC, IPM and AUF each has one seat and no one will speculate how these seats might be distributed between the two dominant parties.
Knysna
In Knysna the DA acquired eight seats on council with the ANC winning seven seats. The remaining six were split up between KIM (two), the PA (two), PBI (one), and the EFF (one). The tally means that if either the DA or the ANC hopes to win the outright majority, they would need to enter into coalition talks with the other four parties.
The DA needs three more seats and the ANC four more to reach the majority of 11 seats.
The DA has four options available to get 11 seats: join hands with both KIM and the PA and no one else; join hands with either KIM or the PA plus either PBI or the EFF; join hands with either KIM or the PA plus both PBI and the EFF; form a coalition with the ANC.
The independent parties that surfaced as primary kingmakers are the Patriotic Alliance (PA) and the newer Knysna Independent Movement (KIM) which each attained two seats in council. Hovering in the wings with enough heft to upset things are the Plaaslike Besorgde Inwoners (PBI) and the Economic Freedom Front (EFF). KIM's performance came as a surprise as it attained the most overall votes after the two big guns with a 7,9% in its first ever LGE, closely followed by the PA (also contesting its first LGE in Knysna).
The ANC's options are more limited: join up with both KIM and the PA and no one else; join up with either KIM or the PA plus both PBI and the EFF; form a coalition with the DA.
Party feedback
Even though the DA Knysna constituency head Dion George stated yesterday that "we are considering our options and have not made any decisions", political pundits have indicated that the DA could be beckoning KIM to the fold and are whispering in the ears of the PBI to join them in the sauna rather than the EFF.
This would leave the ANC in a quandary as bringing both the PA and EFF into the fold would still not give them enough to wield power in Knysna.
For both the DA and the ANC, the PBI could also be the deciding council seat for majority power. But PBI president Virgill Gericke indicated on Tuesday that even though it does have a negotiations team set up, the party had not yet been formally been approached by any parties.
Deputy secretary of the ANC in the Southern Cape Aseza Gungubele stated that the "ANC is still engaging in coalition talks, and we are open to having conversations with the smaller parties. There are national discussions too and these decisions will also influence us".
KIM did not want to divulge with whom it is in discussions.
If the DA/KIM/PBI-alliance comes to fruition, the mayoral candidates would be: Levael Davis (DA), Mark Willemse (KIM) and Alberto Marbi (PBI). The irony of seeing Willemse back in the mayoral seat after having been driven out by the DA in 2019 when he was still a party member, might just be too much to bear.
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