After President Donald Trump’s audacious strike to arrest Venezuela leader Nicolas Maduro, US enemies and friends are wondering who might be next in his sights as he moves to impose American will by force around the world.

Local diplomatic experts, though, don’t believe South Africa – which is in the midst of a souring of relations with Washington – could feel the wrath of US military might because if Trump wants to punish this country, he will do it through economic measures and not the barrel of a gun.

Prof Theo Neethling from the University of Free State said: “South Africa is geopolitically distant from the US and not a major economic or strategic priority for Washington.

South Africa remains distant but cautious

“However, punitive economic measures could be imposed if the SA government were to act in ways perceived as contrary to US global interests.

“In this context, Pretoria would be well advised to proceed cautiously in managing its diplomatic relations with both the US and actors viewed by Washington as adversaries,” he said.

Neethling said he believed the attack on Venezuela was about oil: “Venezuela’s modern oil industry was not organically built by the Venezuelan state, but was largely constructed in the early and mid20th century by foreign capital, above all by US oil companies.”

ALSO READ: ‘Regime change by force’: SA political parties react to US capture of Maduro

The 1976 nationalisation of the industry “is a major issue from Trump’s point of view when he referred to taking back Venezuela’s oil”.

Although US military action in other countries is nothing new, the case of Venezuela is different because Trump did not consult with any of the relevant domestic authorities before taking action.

“It also suggests to me that Trump is departing from soft power politics, where diplomacy in one form or another was present in previous decades,” Neethling said.

Trump’s raid on Venezuela leaves the world questioning US’ next move

Trump described the raid to seize leftist Maduro as an update of the Monroe Doctrine, the 1823 declaration by fifth US president James Monroe that Latin America was closed to other powers, then meaning Europe.

“The Monroe Doctrine is a big deal, but we’ve superseded it by a lot – by a real lot. They now call it the Donroe document,” Trump told a news conference, slapping his name on the policy principle.

“American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again.”

ALSO READ: What we know about the US attacks on Venezuela

But the US is not alone in wanting to exert itself over smaller regional neighbours.

Russia’s Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022, after questioning the former Soviet republic’s historical legitimacy and vowing the removal of its elected president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

China has refused to rule out force to seize Taiwan, a self-governing democracy, and has angered US allies by claiming rights to much of the South China Sea.

Raid came days after China carried out major military exercises

The Venezuela raid came days after China carried out major military exercises aimed at simulating a blockade of Taiwan following a major US arms deal.

A Chinese envoy met Maduro in Caracas hours before his capture. Trump’s intervention is also sure to gain the attention of US allies that have been stunned by his threats over resources he sees as strategic.

Trump recently named an envoy who said he would work to seize Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, and has threatened to take back the Panama Canal.

ALSO READ: Trump says US to ‘run’ Venezuela after toppling Maduro in military attack

Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Defence Priorities, which supports US restraint, said she had long dismissed Trump’s Greenland talk.

“Now I’m not so sure,” she said.

“It wouldn’t be that hard for the US to put a couple of hundred or a couple tof housand troops inside Greenland and it’s not clear to me who could do anything about it.”

Long history of US interventions without UN authorisation

Venezuela “raises this question that if the US can declare a leader illegitimate, go and remove him and then run the country, why can’t other countries?”

The US, of course, has a long history of interventions without UN authorisation, notably the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The difference, Kavanaugh said, is that back then, the US had far more relative power.

“It wasn’t a matter of setting a precedent for other countries, because they just couldn’t aspire to that level of military power and the US could stop basically anyone who tried. But that’s not true anymore,” Kavaugh said.

ALSO READ: SA urges UN action after US captures Venezuela’s president

South African senior politician Themba Godi said: “The meeting of the UN Security Council called for by South Africa will just talk and that is where it will end. The invasion shows the decisiveness of Trump in pursuit of American interests.

“Trump is aware that America faces challenges and to manage that, they need to control minerals. Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world. Greenland has the largest reserves of rare earth minerals outside China. It is all about economic interests.

“US foreign affairs minister Marco Rubio warned that people must have learned from the Venezuelan episode that no one should play games with Trump because he will act and act decisively.”

By Masoka Dube

Journalist

Article: The Citizen

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