ELECTION NEWS - What if no party receives an absolute majority nationally (rather unlikely) or in any of the provinces (more likely) during the elections? How do minority or coalition governments work and do they lead to better or worse government?

Pierre de Vos, for Daily Maverick, casts some light on the processes that takes place immediately after the election.

By Saturday afternoon the Electoral Commission will announce the final election results and will indicate how many seats each party won in the National Assembly (NA) and in the nine provincial legislatures. A party needs about 40 000 to 45 000 votes for every seat allocated to it in the NA, although the complicated formula used to calculate the seats provides a slight advantage to very small parties vying for only one seat. At the first sitting of the NA after the election, the Chief Justice will preside while the NA elects a new speaker from among its members in accordance with Section 52 and Schedule 3 of the South African Constitution. The newly elected speaker then presides over the election of a deputy speaker and the President from among the members of the NA. The election of the speaker, deputy speaker and president must be done via a secret ballot, and a candidate only wins if he or she obtains more than an absolute majority of the votes cast.

If the ANC wins more than 200 seats in the NA, which is likely, the elections in the NA for speaker and President will be a formality as the ANC MPs will merely rubber stamp the candidates nominated by the ANC National Executive Committee (NEC). It is only where no party gains an overall majority in the NA (not likely) that the ANC would have to make a deal with smaller parties or with either the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) or the Democratic Alliance (DA) to secure support for its candidates for speaker and for president.

If Cyril Ramaphosa is elected President of the country, his next obligation would be to select and then appoint his Cabinet shortly after his election. In terms of section 91(2) of the Constitution the President has absolute power to appoint the Deputy President and Ministers, to assign their powers and functions, and to dismiss them.

However, politically this power is constrained by the political necessity of retaining the support of the majority of members of the ANC NEC and of alliance partners, and to retain a working relationship with the ANC ‘top six’ to prevent party insurrection and steps to sabotage his presidency. In the unlikely event that the ANC receives less than 50% of the national vote, the President will also have to consider the demands of those smaller parties whose support he would need to get elected and to govern.

The situation is even more complicated at provincial level. Although it is impossible to know for certain, there is at least a likelihood that the ANC will not obtain an overall majority in the Gauteng legislature, and that the DA will not obtain an overall majority in the Western Cape legislature. If this happens, both the DA and the ANC will try to make a deal with one or more political parties represented in the provincial legislature to try and form a government with its own party’s candidate as premier.

The first option for either party would be to form a minority government. This would entail the party securing the backing of the EFF and/or smaller parties for the election of its party’s candidate as speaker and as premier without forming a formal coalition with these parties. The first goal of both the ANC and the DA would be to convince a majority of the members of the provincial legislature to vote for their respective candidates for speaker and premier. The party whose candidate is elected premier can then form a minority government. The successful party which gets to form the government (either the ANC or the DA) might be required to make certain promises to the EFF or smaller parties to secure their vote.

The second option is for either the DA or the ANC to negotiate with smaller parties to form a formal majority coalition. The parties could also negotiate with each other to form a grand coalition between them. For a formal coalition to be formed, the parties would have to agree beforehand not only who is to be elected speaker and premier, but also on the positions in government each coalition partner would be entitled to.

A formal coalition is usually more stable than a minority government. Such an arrangement gives the smaller parties direct influence over the government because - at provincial level - some of their MPs would become MECs (provincial Cabinet ministers) in the provincial government.

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