Update: Scientific report on fires

Update

KNYSNA NEWS - With the release of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) report on the cause of the 7 June 2017 fires last week (28 June), two separate reports now exist that refute the report compiled by Knysna’s former fire chief, and which now opens the floodgates to litigation that could reach billions of rands.

Former fire chief Clinton Manuel, who now fulfils a training position with the Cape Town fire service, admitted that he would have accepted the CSIR report “if it had not been for that stacked material and pine cones where it should not be”.

He referred to the report as being one that “brings out a probable cause” similar to his own report – known as the "Knysna report" – and added that one cannot only rely on satellite images to find the cause of a fire. “Their report contains no fire scene evidence,” he said.

Manuel refers KPH to muni
A request to supply Knysna-Plett Herald (KPH) with photographic evidence of the "stacked material and pine cones” that were according to the Knysna report brought into the area by humans, as well as who the members of his investigation team were, was referred back to Knysna Municipality as, Manuel said, he no longer works for them and is not at liberty to “pass comments or info”.

During a visit to the Elandskraal area, AfriForum representative Reint Dykema took this journalist as close as possible to where Manuel said the fire started. In about a 150m radius from this spot, this journalist noticed pine trees, still growing, and pine cones in the area.

The CSIR report states that extensive corroborating scientific evidence points to the existence and spread of a smouldering fire (probably underground) that was most likely caused by a lightning strike that occurred on 22 March 2017 in the Elandskraal area. On 7 June, this smoulder was worsened by the hot berg winds on the day.

According to CSIR research group leader Philip Frost, the report was compiled using information gathered from a wide range of sources: Nasa and European Space Agency (ESA) satellites; all available geospatial data including the use of images from various satellites, drone video footage, lightning and weather data; the Sentinel 2 satellite; lightning strike data from the SA Weather Service’s (SAWS) lightning detection network; and Advanced Fire Information System (AFIS), a technology developed by the CSIR over the past 13 years to assist in the prediction, detection and assessment of wildfires globally.

AfriForum
Since the release of the latest report – referred to as damning by those in the know – the main opponent of Manuel’s report, civil rights organisation AfriForum, has welcomed the CSIR’s findings.

According to Dykema, the CSIR report confirms in great detail where, when and how the Elandskraal fire started. “It also confirms that the Klatzow report is correct. The CSIR conducted a highly scientific analysis on the origin of the fire. Some of the latest technology was used, combined with expertise and experience on the subject. It is trusted that the finding will finally confirm what the origin of the fire was and precisely where it started,” said Dykema.

“Before 7 June 2017 there were various examples of different people who brought the smouldering fire under the attention of the Knysna Municipality. Given the drought during the preceding period, one would expect that any risk of possible fires would be investigated fully and that appropriate steps would be put in place to extinguish these fires. There are proven methods to extinguish smouldering fires,” he said.

Dykema added that AfriForum would welcome the municipality's official distancing from the Manuel report, “with specific reference to the incorrect indication of the location and origin of the Elandskraal fire”, and said the organisation trusts that the municipality would launch an internal investigation into why the Knysna and Sedgefield fire stations chose to ignore the smouldering Elandskraal fire.

Dr David Klatzow
For his part, Klatzow said the recent release of the CSIR report lays to rest Manuel’s investigation as being incorrect. “This comes as no surprise,” he said, offering multiple reasons for this bold statement.

The first of these, said Klatzow, was the fact that Manuel is according to him “a fire officer and as such has no qualifications to engage in fire investigation which is known to be one of the more difficult elements of forensic science”. He added that it was “highly inappropriate” that Manuel investigated a situation where both he (Manuel) and his staff “might face issues of accountability for the almost R4-billion worth of damage”. Klatzow said Manuel is simply too compromised and conflicted.

Furthermore, Klatzow said Manuel reiterating that his own investigation was done using the “scientific method” fooled no one. “Genuine scientists do not have to say this as it is fundamentally expected of them in the first place.”

Klatzow added that Manuel’s explanations and interpretations based on his observations were not sustainable on anything but the shallowest approach, and that factual assertions in Manuel’s report were “simply incorrect”.

“My primary purpose in conducting the AfriForum investigation was to establish the probable cause, but more than this it was to reflect on what had gone wrong to cause such devastation and tragic loss of life, with the aim of putting in place preventative measures for the future,” he concluded.

Dr Wallace Vosloo
Elandskraal resident and Eskom engineer Dr Wallace Vosloo, whose house in Elandskraal was one of the first to be engulfed by flames and who contributed information to both the AfriForum and CSIR report, was previously quoted as saying that if the lightning strike theory was to be confirmed by the CSIR report it would only be the tip of the iceberg.

After the release of the report, his reply to KPH queries was short and succinct: “The CSIR report is 100% scientifically correct. It reveals the truth about what the cause of the fire was. We must now accept this and learn from the mistakes that were made. Then we need to ensure it does not happen again in future to honour the lives of those lost on that tragic day,” he said.

Jean du Plessis
Jean du Plessis, attorney at Morajane Du Plessis Attorneys in Pretoria, is currently claiming damages worth R21-million from Knysna Municipality on behalf of Elandskraal residents.

He said after the release of the CSIR report that the community is overjoyed with the result, and added that it was "not unexpected and is just the next step in the process to revealing the truth around the fire".

According to Du Plessis the Elandskraal community requested the local authorities’ assistance in April, May and June 2017, and the lack of action then resulted in the blazing inferno. He said the Fire Brigade Services Act places certain responsibilities on the fire service and their actions were found wanting.

“The irony is that while the municipality was setting up its report it had contact with the CSIR. It is very strange that the CSIR was never asked whether the satellite imagery had any answers. It is almost standard practice these days that, during a fire investigation, satellite data is requested from the CSIR or the SA National Space Agency to get clarity on the cause of a fire. If you look at the role played by the CSIR during the fire, it is even stranger that the municipality did not approach them for satellite data in compiling their own report.

“The next step is now to try and meet with the Knysna Municipality and their insurer and discuss their and the CSIR’s report. The Elandskraal community is in possession of further information that disputes the contents and outcomes of the municipal report, and they would like to discuss this with the municipality and its insurer,” said Du Plessis.

Knysna Municipality
The municipality has said, via both its communications manager Christopher Bezuidenhout and legal services manager Melony Paulsen, that according to municipal manager Kam Chetty the municipality has not received any official communication from the CSIR.

Paulsen added that as a result of the claims received on or during 17 December 2017, and the litigious nature of the matter, the Knysna Municipality will not be commenting at this stage.

According to the CSIR, their report was reviewed by local and international experts; the scientific report was submitted to fire managers, relevant stakeholders such as the Southern Cape Fire Protection Association, the Western Cape’s Provincial Disaster Management Centre, Knysna Municipality, and the International Charter on Space and Major Disasters.

"The CSIR report was not sent directly to any municipality or organisation as it is available to download from our website. The CSIR did request a meeting to present the report to Knysna Municipality, however they were not available," said the CSIR's Frost.

Southern Cape Fire Protection Association
According to Paul Gerber of the Southern Cape Fire Protection Association (SCFPA), it has a signed service level agreement with the CSIR and is paying a licence fee to have access to the AFIS technology, and therefore is a stakeholder as is the Provincial Disaster Management Centre (PDMC).

"As a stakeholder, we have access to different products derived from this system. This is the reason why the presentation was done for the SCFPA.

PDMC and the SCFPA were the first to see the report before the media release on 28 June. The SCFPA invited Knysna Municipality to attend this presentation but they declined," Gerber said.

He added that products requested by the SCFPA regarding the Knysna fires was an estimation of the size of the area affected by the fire; analysis and modelling of the spread of the fire; a fire severity map for rehabilitation and erosion prevention; and vegetation regrowth maps for monitoring post-fire alien plant invasion.

"Once upon a pine in a forest … far away from any lightning strike …" Caption/cartoon: Supplied by Dr Wallace Vosloo