Update

KNYSNA NEWS - Yet another investigation into the 2017 Knysna Fires contradicts Knysna Municipality's report into the devastating disaster that swept through the area two years ago.

The results of an in-depth authoritative and independent report, commissioned by short-term insurer Santam, into the blaze that struck the Knysna area in June 2017 were released last week.

Main points of origin
In this report, which was compiled by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), the Research Alliance for Disaster and Risk Reduction (Radar) and the Fire Engineering Research Unit (FireSUN) at Stellenbosch University, it is revealed the Knysna Fires had two main points of origin which led to what are known as the Elandskraal and the Kruisfontein fires.

Initially Knysna fire chief Clinton Manuel compiled a report in which he indicated that human activity caused the fires. His findings were based on pine cones (often used as kindling) and charred logs that were found on private land in the Elandskraal area where the fire started.

Conflicting findings
After the fires, AfriForum launched an independent investigation and appointed forensic scientist Dr David Klatzow to look into the fires.

Contrary to Manuel's report, Klatzow found that the Elandskraal fire, which caused the majority of the destruction, was caused by lightning several weeks earlier. He found the fire smouldered for a number of weeks, and weather conditions fuelled this fire.

This glaring difference between the reports led to an investigation by the CSIR, which ultimately also refuted Manuel's findings. It revealed that extensive corroborating scientific evidence pointed to the existence and spread of a smouldering fire that was most likely caused by a lightning strike that occurred on 22 March 2017 in the Elandskraal area.

The Western Cape Government then approached Vulcan Wildfire Management to investigate the fires and found the origin of the Elandskraal fire aligned with that of the Klatzow and CSIR versions. The Santam findings also corroborated these versions.Despite numerous efforts to gain input from the municipality on its position regarding the contradictory reports, it was not forthcoming before going to print.

'Risk of mega-fires remains high'
The Santam report also revealed that the risk of so-called "mega-fires" recurring in South Africa remains high. The report makes a number of recommendations towards minimising the risk of future mega-fires – and the remedial steps to be taken in reducing the social and financial impact of such disasters.

Key among these recommendations are managing or controlling the presence of fire-prone vegetation and other combustible or flammable material on tracts of land; attending to all fire call-outs, even if they don't appear threatening; and greater focus on public education and awareness programmes on the risks associated with wildfires.

Santam chief underwriting officer John Melville said: "Our goal was to analyse the causes of the Knysna fires and to find out why it was so severe, but more importantly the purpose was to establish how we can reduce the risk of recurrence and the severity of such fires should they recur. While we can't do anything about conditions created by climate change, we can take steps to reduce the frequency and magnitude of wildfires."

Gaps in training
The report showed there were gaps in the training of the suppression of wildfires, incident command and evacuation and as well as in response training.

The report further revealed that the fires cost government, the insurance and forestry industries about R3-billion in direct expenses, but that these figures underestimate the true cost of the incident.

The impact on those who lost homes, businesses and jobs was immense, but according to the report this is impossible to quantify as the information is not publicly available. Data on the losses sustained by parastatals is also unavailable. In addition, there are indirect costs that are difficult to measure. The private sector sustained the heaviest losses.

Read a previous article: Knysna fires: Independent disaster report

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