BLOG: Throughout history the geographical distribution of populations and their accompanying activities have never taken up equal space. There are always and everywhere two main components: leading concentrations and the rest of the space economy.
It is nowadays calculated that the city of Rome, at the height of the empire, had anything between 450 000 and a million inhabitants. When such concentration[s] become[s] dysfunctional, matters are serious.
All figures here depart from the official baseline that South Africa's population reached 58,8 million in 2019. Just for comparison - the United Kingdom has 66 million inhabitants, Australia 25 million.
Earlier this year South Africa's most populous province, Gauteng, reached a massive 13 million inhabitants. Research by Brinkhoff already indicated this total for 2017. More than one out of every 4,5 South Africans live in Gauteng.
Presently Gauteng experiences its highest growth in 65 years. Over 9 million are estimated to live in and around Johannesburg. By 2030 it may be more than 11 million, making it the 34th biggest city in the world.
Dependent settlements continue to attach to the main core [and expand!] like Soshanguve, north of Pretoria. It has grown from 24 000 in 1950 to 770 000!
Gauteng, with only 1,5% of the country's land area, is responsible for a third of the national Gross Domestic Product. It generates about 10% of the total GDP for Africa. It is the preferred home to a large number of overseas companies, not only for business here, but requiring a gateway to Africa.
Massive over-concentration definitely has a whole set of existing and threatening problems. We touch on one only. The N1 between Johannesburg and Pretoria is now severely overloaded. It carries 180 000 vehicles a day between the two cities. With a little extra congestion it easily takes some people three hours to get to work.
Under international pressure accompanying the 2010 Fifa Soccer World Cup, the Gautrain, a rapid rail system, was built in the nick of time, but only partly completed.
The basic plan was quite simple - a north-south line between Johannesburg and Pretoria, and an east-west line between OR Tambo International Airport and Sandton. The east-west line opened in June 2010, just in time for the soccer tournament! The north-south line from Pretoria to Rosebank only opened in August 2011 - more than a year after the World Cup. Delays could not be handled. One was caused by a massive water seepage in a major tunnel.
At all three government levels it is admitted that the ineffective over-concentration needs urgent attention. But after the special effort [that almost failed] for the World Cup, no active steps have been taken to address the giant problem.
In many developed economies four spontaneous and/or semi-assisted means for de-concentration and decentralisation come to the fore: metropolitan, urban-rural, regional and international. The advanced world is able to handle and exist with the concentrations, although also suffering, but London wants to be London and New York will be New York.
The developing - or, let's not mince words - the retarded world, remains unable to address the challenge of over-concentration effectively.
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