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GARDEN ROUTE NEWS - It's been one year since Covid-19 burst into our lives - but can we really say happy anniversary?

18 March marks one year to the day since Knysna learned of its first two known cases of Covid-19 as former Knysna councillor Peter Myers and his wife Candace announced having tested positive after returning from their godson's wedding abroad. Things have changed dramatically since then.

Over the past year we have battled through two waves of the pandemic, been up and down the local lockdown levels like a roller-coaster as the number of deaths mounted around the world.

Since 19 June 2020, Knysna-Plett Herald has been receiving weekly statistical updates from the Western Cape Department of Health and since 23 September 2020 from the Garden Route District Municipality. 

Over time we built up a substantial amount of statistical data relating to the pandemic in the Knysna and Bitou sub-districts that offer an interesting perspective on the highs and lows we've experienced.

Photo gallery: Graphs depicting Covid figures

From 20 March last year it took Knysna two months to reach a total of 50 cases, and a further three weeks to reach 100. In comparison, it took Bitou three months to reach the 50 mark but only another two weeks to reach 100. 

Knysna recorded its first death in the week between 8 and 15 May, while Bitou only recorded theirs roughly a month later, in the week between 12 and 19 June.

It was not long after both sub-districts had reached 100 cases that the first wave began taking effect, and on 24 July 2020 Knysna reached its first wave peak* of 338 active cases with Bitou peaking at 123 active cases on the same day. Between the first peak and the week between 14 and 21 October, Knysna reached 50 deaths.

Not long after this, the second wave began rearing its devastating head. Knysna and Bitou started showing sustained increases in active cases with two weeks of a marked increase by the start of November, roughly three and a half months after the first wave peaks. In the two months between 28 October and 30 December, Knysna's total Covid-19 cases rose drastically by 153,44% and Bitou's even more, by 227,98% in the same period. 

The deaths rose by 143,14% in Knysna and by 254,17% in Bitou in the same two months. Bitou reached 50 deaths by 9 December and Knysna reached 100 deaths by 23 December.

Knysna's second wave peak came on 9 December with 843 active cases, and Bitou's on the same day with 477 active cases. The second wave peaks came 19 weeks (just under five months) after the first wave peak. 

The second wave peak was 149,41% higher in Knysna than the first wave peak, and 287,80% higher in Bitou. Three weeks into 2021, Bitou reached 100 deaths and Knysna 150.

Now, as at 17 March, Knysna has recorded a total of 4 773 cases of Covid-19, of which 4 594 have recovered, 160 have died, and 19 are active cases. In Bitou, a total of 2 717 cases of Covid-19 has been recorded, with 2 610 having recovered, 107 having died, and zero are active cases. 

It is the first time since 29 May 2020 that Bitou has no active cases according to KPH records.

Our lives have changed dramatically over the past year, and it is important to remember this is not over just yet. There is still a very real possibility of a third wave, and we have to continue to take every precaution possible to mitigate its severity.

* There is a possibility that the peaks were higher on other days in the week, but this is according to the once-a-week statistical information KPH received from the Western Cape Department of Health and the Garden Route District Municipality.

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